Rapport IEA 2010

PARIS: Oil demand and price are set to grow steadily over the next 25 years despite environmental policies, essentially dooming climate-change goals, the International Energy Agency forecast on Tuesday.

Even under climate change pledges made under the Copenhagen Accord last year, fossil fuels will still account for more than half the increase in total energy demand, with oil to remain the dominant fuel, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook report.

It forecasts demand for oil to rise by 18 per cent between 2009 and 2035, driven by developing countries, with nearly half the increase due to China alone.

The eventual peak in oil will be determined by factors affecting both demand and supply. In the
New Policies Scenario, production in total does not peak before 2035, though it comes close to doing
so. By contrast, in the 450 Scenario, production does peak, at 86 mb/d, just before 2020, as a result
of weaker demand, falling briskly thereafter. Oil prices are much lower as a result. The message is
clear: if governments act more vigorously than currently planned to encourage more efficient use of
oil and the development of alternatives, then demand for oil might begin to ease soon. As a result,
we might see a fairly early peak in oil production, which would help prolong the world’s oil reserves.

Oil demand (excluding biofuels) continues to grow steadily in the New Policies Scenario, reaching
about 99 million barrels per day by 2035 – 15 mb/d up on 2009. All of the net growth comes from
non-OECD countries, almost half from China alone; demand in the OECD falls by over 6 mb/d. Global
oil production reaches 96 mb/d, the balance of 3 mb/d coming from processing gains. Crude oil
output reaches an undulating plateau of around 68-69 mb/d by 2020, but never regains its all time
peak of 70 mb/d reached in 2006, while production of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and unconventional
oil grows strongly. Total OPEC production rises continually through to 2035 in this Scenario, its share
of global output increasing from 41% to 52%. Iraq accounts for a large share of the increase in OPEC
output. By contrast, total non-OPEC oil production is broadly constant to around 2025, as rising
production of NGLs and unconventional production offsets a fall in that of crude oil; thereafter,
production starts to drop.